The build-up of Congressional Republican scandals and the decrease in Bush’s polling numbers have left many wondering what might happen in the 2006 midterm elections. Will Democrats be able to take back the Senate? More incredibly, could they take back the House? Some have speculated that there are definite parallels between the current political situation and the situation in 1994 when Republicans took control from Democrats. Then, as now, there was scandal and wide dissatisfaction with Congress.

Thankfully, I don’t need to stretch my brain too much to figure out the possibilities of major Democratic victories because Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report can do my thinking for me. Cook keeps a constant eye on all the Congressional races, determining which ones are competitive, tracking who is leaving their seats, and calculating precisely how the balance of power can change in the Congress.

Charlie’s most recent column of December 3rd speculates that there won’t be many significant changes in Congress in ’06 (a safe speculation, considering that about 95% of incumbents get re-elected). Interestingly, though, he says that Democrats could take back the House, but that their margin of victory will probably not be enough to give them a lot of safe votes. Likewise, the Republicans will probably not increase their margins. So it seems that even after ’06, we’ll be seeing the same gridlock and bickering (did we expect anything different?)

Of course, it’s still early, and you can bet Charlie will have a lot to say as more campaigns heat up.

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